Saturday, July 25, 2015

July[4] - Keppel DC REIT (Accumulate ~ 1.08, Ride with Big Data)

COUNTER: Keppel DC REIT

OVERVIEW:
Being a real estate investment trust (REIT), the counter mainly invest on real estate assets which are primarily used for data center purposes. Its current portfolio comprises 8 data centers which strategically located in key data center hubs across 7 cities Asia Pacific and Europe. Keppel T&T (refer to posting on 8 May, 2015) is the sponsor for the counter.

HIGHLIGHTS:
(1) 2Q2015 results saw revenue of $26 mil which beat prospectus forecast by 4%.

(2) The counter has hedged against currencies, AUD and EUR for 2 years, thus minimizing impact on its earning from currency fluctuations until 2017.

(3) DBS rated this counter at $1.12 based on Discounted Cash Flow model. (DCF)

INVESTMENT THEMES:
(1) Based on 1H15 distribution per unit (DPU) of $0.0356, full year dividend yield could reach > 6% based on current trading price ~ $1.08 per share.

(2) New acquisition of Intellicentre 2 in Sydney, Australia is set to contribute revenue income of 2H2015.

(3) Since debut on SGX end of 2014, the counter has been riding upward trend until result announcement last week. Its resilient nature against various market downturn proves its worthiness to be one defensive counter in investor's portfolio.

(4) Considering current low debt ratio < 30%, investor could expect the counter to expand existing portfolio thus producing higher return in distribution.

ENTRY PRICE:
Accumulate ~ 1.08.


Friday, July 17, 2015

July[3] - Triyards (Buy ~ $0.45, What if oil rebounds?)

COUNTER: Triyards Holdings

OVERVIEW:
Headquartered in Singapore, the counter is an engineering and fabrication solutions provider focused on the offshore oil & gas industry.  With its experience in delivering vessels and complex projects, it has established as a front runner in the fabrication of liftboats and other oil & gas related assets in South East Asia (SEA). It owns and operates fabrication yards in Vietnam, Singapore as well as engineering facility in Houston, US.

HIGHLIGHTS:
(1) 9MFY15 net profit down 12% year on year due to higher administrative expenses. However, gross profit up 5% and gross margin was stable at 22%.

(2) It announced new order win of USD175m from client in SEA region. Totally, it has secured USD501m of contracts. This marks 3 conservative quarters of increasing orderbook (USD350m, 370m, 520m as at end 1Q15, 2Q15 and 3Q15).

(3) Crude oil prices has been hovering around USD51 per barrel. Technically, it has built support ~ USD50 per barrel. From its one year chart, it could been forming higher low in the trend, so more upside movement is expected.


INVESTMENT THEMES:
(1) Following the latest financial results announcement on 7 July, the counter has been surging >10%. It indicated positive response from the market towards its business prospect. From the weekly chart as below, the counter has been showing strong rebound lately. Both EMA10 and 20 are converging and pointing upwards. Traders could take position for short term gain.

(2) UOB rates this counter based on FY16 price to book value at 0.8x, thus deriving target price of $0.87. Current trading price basically represent 100% room to grow. It is also interesting to note that the counter lately issued SGD29.5m of warrants with exercise price at USD0.56 to Ezion. It further indicate the ambition of management.

ENTRY PRICE:
BUY ~$0.45

Saturday, July 11, 2015

July[2] - CDL HTrust (Buy ~ $1.62, Welcome back tourists)

COUNTER: CDL Hospitality Trust

OVERVIEW:
The counter is a stapled group comprising CDL Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trust ("H-REIT"), and CDL Hospitality Business Trust ("HBT"). It is established with the principal investment strategy of investing, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate, which is primarily used for hospitality and/or hospitality-related purpose.

Currently, it owns 14 hotels and two resorts, comprising six hotels in Singapore; five in Australia's key gateway cities of Brisbane and Perth; one in New Zealand's gateway city of Auckland; two in Japan's gateway city of Tokyo, two resorts located in the Maldives, as well as the shopping arcade adjoining Orchard Hotel (Claymore Connect) in Singapore.

HIGHLIGHTS:
(1) 1Q2015 results saw 6% drop of Net Property Income (NPI) year on year. This was mainly due to lower contribution from Singapore hotels which saw Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) falling 10% year on year.

(2) Acquisition of Japan Hotels was completed on end of 2014. These hotels registered leap of 21% in RevPAR year on year due to 43% increase of foreign visitors. These income will only contribute to distributable income (in form of dividend) to shareholders from 4Q2015 onwards.

(3) The counter maintained its gearing ratio at healthy range ~ 32%. Floating rate borrowing was reduced from 48% to 39%. It should be ready to cope with any short term rate hike condition. Instead, the management has emphasized its ambition to further acquire profitable opportunity by using ample debt headroom.

INVESTMENT THEMES:
(1) In recognition of headwinds in Singapore tourism, Singapore Tourism Board (STB) has launched a series of initiatives to drive visitorship. Investor could take position for the rebound on tourism. Besides, coming financial results could see some positive catalyst from SEA game 2015.

(2) Generally, research houses put target price > $1.84 for the counter. Current trading price represents >15% of discount. Dividend yield is more that 6% annually. Investor could expect dividend > 0.052 per share to be released on August.

(3) The counter has been shedding >10% in prices. Worry over outbreak of MERS and rate hike from US could have been factored in. From the chart, it has been forming support ~$1.62 which is also nearing lower trading zone over past 3 years. Mid term traders could take position now.

ENTRY PRICE:
BUY ~$1.62

Saturday, July 4, 2015

July[1] - Wilmar (Buy ~ $3.3, Eyes on Africa)

COUNTER: Wilmar International

OVERVIEW:
Founded in 1991 and headquartered in Singapore, the counter is today Asia's leading agribusiness group. Its business activities include oil palm cultivation, oilseed crushing, edible oils refining, sugar milling and refining, biodiesel and fertilizer manufacturing. The core strategy is a resilient integrated agribusiness model that encompasses the entire value chain of the agricultural commodity processing business, from origination and processing to branding, merchandising and distribution.

HIGHLIGHTS:
(1) Last month, Indonesia released export tax levy for various palm products. The bulk of the levy collection will be channeled to subsidize biodiesel, which would incentivize biodiesel production. Shall the new policy being executed successfully, Wilmar is set to be one clear beneficiary for its downstream operation and biodiesel segment.

(2) Latest financial results for 1Q15 saw net profit with a leap of 49% year on year which was spearheaded by soybean crushing margin. Low soybean prices due to oversupply of global soybean benefit China as it is the largest soybean importer and Wilmar is the largest soybean crusher in China (~22% of market share). The management is confident that the crushing margin remains positive going to mid-2015.

(3) African has been the world's second fastest growing economy over last two decades, according to the World Bank. Over the next decade, GDP is projected to rise by an average of 6% per year. The counter has been expanding its footprint in the continent since entering about 15 years ago. The revenue from African operation have increased by 29% over last five years.

INVESTMENT THEMES:
(1) Growth is the key to ensure profitability of business thus raising return to its shareholders. As one of the leader in agribusiness of Asia, investor could ride with the group's aggressive plan in expanding business footprint worldwide. Africa could be the bright spot of its business in future. The group has disclosed its ambition in the annual report of 2014.

(2) Agriculture is one of the key economy activities to human. Limited land and growing population shall lead to ascending prices on food in long term. Investor should position during current downtrend of plantation related companies due to lower commodity prices.

(3) From the chart, the counter has been trading between rising channel since end of 2014. Current trade price is near to the lower bound of the channel. Trader could take this as entry point for potential price gain. The counter used to issue dividend ~0.02 on August.

ENTRY PRICE:
BUY ~$3.3