Macro economic announcement date for coming week (Critical events highlighted in RED)
Saturday, January 30, 2016
Friday, January 29, 2016
Jan[9] - Local Banks
Following announcement about negative interest rate from the Bank of Japan, Singapore market welcomed rebound which has been missing since early 2016. Market speculation about potential cut in production among OPEC and Russia also gave a boost to oil price thus preventing local counters from further down sliding.
Reviewing price of the two local banks below, deep value is present as both are trading at book prices or even less. Last Friday rebound might not indicate beginning of new bull run, but generally forming a support line for both counters.
DBS: FY2015 result will be released on 22 Feb.
OCBC: FY2015 result will be released on 17 Feb.
Note:
Net asset value = entity's value - entity's liability
*** Note: Same counter has been mentioned in Nov[9] ***
Reviewing price of the two local banks below, deep value is present as both are trading at book prices or even less. Last Friday rebound might not indicate beginning of new bull run, but generally forming a support line for both counters.
DBS: FY2015 result will be released on 22 Feb.
OCBC: FY2015 result will be released on 17 Feb.
Note:
Net asset value = entity's value - entity's liability
*** Note: Same counter has been mentioned in Nov[9] ***
Saturday, January 23, 2016
Jan[8] - Market Update
Macro economic announcement date for coming week (Critical events highlighted in RED)
Jan[7] - Keppel DC REIT (Big data booming)
COUNTER: Keppel DC REIT
OVERVIEW:
Being a real estate investment trust (REIT), the counter mainly invest on real estate assets which are primarily used for data center purposes. Its current portfolio comprises 8 data centers which strategically located in key data center hubs across 7 cities Asia Pacific and Europe. Keppel T&T (refer to posting on 8 May, 2015) is the sponsor for the counter.
HIGHLIGHTS:
[1] The counter saw its 2015 full year revenue and distributable income outperformed forecast as in the IPO prospectus by 2%.
[2] In the countries where Keppel DC operates, World Bank projected economy growth at 1 to 3%. Against such weak operating environment, industry fundamental remain intact due to proliferation of smart devices, internet penetration. Cisco's Global Cloud Index projected global cloud traffic to be more than quadruple from 2014 to 2019. It pushed high demand towards data centers.
[3] Its current occupancy level is at 95% with weighted average lease expiry of 8.7 years as at end of 2015.
INVESTMENT THEMES:
[1] Intellicentre 2 at Sydney was acquired on August 2015. 2015 shall see its full year contribution to revenue.
[2] Current price translates to annual dividend yield at 7% which is pretty attractive. This is the only domestic REIT counter which provides investor a proxy into big data booming.
PRICE TREND:
*** Note: Same counter has been mentioned in July[4] ***
OVERVIEW:
Being a real estate investment trust (REIT), the counter mainly invest on real estate assets which are primarily used for data center purposes. Its current portfolio comprises 8 data centers which strategically located in key data center hubs across 7 cities Asia Pacific and Europe. Keppel T&T (refer to posting on 8 May, 2015) is the sponsor for the counter.
HIGHLIGHTS:
[1] The counter saw its 2015 full year revenue and distributable income outperformed forecast as in the IPO prospectus by 2%.
[2] In the countries where Keppel DC operates, World Bank projected economy growth at 1 to 3%. Against such weak operating environment, industry fundamental remain intact due to proliferation of smart devices, internet penetration. Cisco's Global Cloud Index projected global cloud traffic to be more than quadruple from 2014 to 2019. It pushed high demand towards data centers.
[3] Its current occupancy level is at 95% with weighted average lease expiry of 8.7 years as at end of 2015.
INVESTMENT THEMES:
[1] Intellicentre 2 at Sydney was acquired on August 2015. 2015 shall see its full year contribution to revenue.
[2] Current price translates to annual dividend yield at 7% which is pretty attractive. This is the only domestic REIT counter which provides investor a proxy into big data booming.
PRICE TREND:
*** Note: Same counter has been mentioned in July[4] ***
Monday, January 18, 2016
Char[5] - STI
Timeframe: Next 5 trading sessions (The daily chart provides an idea of where the market might move over the next 5 trading sessions, after which it would be best to review the chart again)
As the saying goes, when it rains, it pours and it does seem to apply to the financial markets given the downward movement experienced since the start of the year. The question being asked is if there is any reprieve in sight. With the overbought/oversold (OB/OS) indicator in the Business Times today at -1064 (http://eresources.nlb.gov.sg/newspapers/Digitised/Article/biztimes19880319-1.2.22.4.aspx), it is possible that the Singapore market might be due for a short rebound, due to the current oversold position that the market finds itself in.
Assuming the close of the market today is about the current index level at time of writing, and with not much further large increases in traded volumes, there is a good chance that the market might have be exhausting itself on its downward movement for the time being given the drop in traded volume. The candle formed would also be that of an abandoned baby candlestick which is normally a fairly bullish indicator.
Should a decent rebound take hold over the next few trading sessions, the market could bounce to the range of 2692-2714.
Abandoned Baby Candlestick
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullish-abandoned-baby.asp
Like the famous line from the movie The Crow, it can't rain all the time.
As the saying goes, when it rains, it pours and it does seem to apply to the financial markets given the downward movement experienced since the start of the year. The question being asked is if there is any reprieve in sight. With the overbought/oversold (OB/OS) indicator in the Business Times today at -1064 (http://eresources.nlb.gov.sg/newspapers/Digitised/Article/biztimes19880319-1.2.22.4.aspx), it is possible that the Singapore market might be due for a short rebound, due to the current oversold position that the market finds itself in.
Assuming the close of the market today is about the current index level at time of writing, and with not much further large increases in traded volumes, there is a good chance that the market might have be exhausting itself on its downward movement for the time being given the drop in traded volume. The candle formed would also be that of an abandoned baby candlestick which is normally a fairly bullish indicator.
Should a decent rebound take hold over the next few trading sessions, the market could bounce to the range of 2692-2714.
Abandoned Baby Candlestick
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullish-abandoned-baby.asp
Like the famous line from the movie The Crow, it can't rain all the time.
Saturday, January 16, 2016
Jan[6] - Market Update
Macro economic announcement date for coming week (Critical events highlighted in RED)
Jan[5] - STI ETF (Bull/Bear border)
COUNTER: STI ETF
OVERVIEW:
Adopting physical replication model, STI ETF actually buy into constituents of STI so as to track its price movement.
HIGHLIGHTS:
[1] Following Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2900 last Friday, it entered Bear market by some definition as 20% downfall occurred. Regional markets have been free falling as well since the beginning of 2016. DOW JONES and S&P 500 were testing two years low points even though outperforming economic data was released.
[2] Impact of global oil glut has been spreading to banks. Market is worrying over potential surge in its non performing loan, thus we saw local bank counters heavily sold down into book value last two weeks.
INVESTMENT THEMES:
[1] Global market has been growing much volatile since Aug 2015. Besides oil price, US rate hike is another concern. It could have been oversold so bargain hunt might repeat as what happened on Oct 2015.
[2] To prevent over exposing into specific sector such as oil related counter, buying into ETF could provide a much balanced allocation of fund. Current STI ETF price represents 3.5% dividend yield. P/E is 10 which has fallen into attractive range.
PRICE TREND:
STI has been shedding 9% since 2016. 2520 to 2631 are supporting lines formed in STI over past 5 years. Shall the support holds firm, bargain hunting window is opened.
*** Note: Same counter has been mentioned in Aug[5] ***
OVERVIEW:
SPDR funds are a family of exchange-traded funds (ETF) traded in US, Europe and Asia Pacific and managed by State Street Global Advisor. SPDR® Sraits Time Index ETF ("STI ETF") is Singapore's first locally created ETF which can be traded like any listed share. It seeks to generate return that closely correspond to the performance of Sraits Time Index ("STI").
HIGHLIGHTS:
[1] Following Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2900 last Friday, it entered Bear market by some definition as 20% downfall occurred. Regional markets have been free falling as well since the beginning of 2016. DOW JONES and S&P 500 were testing two years low points even though outperforming economic data was released.
[2] Impact of global oil glut has been spreading to banks. Market is worrying over potential surge in its non performing loan, thus we saw local bank counters heavily sold down into book value last two weeks.
INVESTMENT THEMES:
[1] Global market has been growing much volatile since Aug 2015. Besides oil price, US rate hike is another concern. It could have been oversold so bargain hunt might repeat as what happened on Oct 2015.
[2] To prevent over exposing into specific sector such as oil related counter, buying into ETF could provide a much balanced allocation of fund. Current STI ETF price represents 3.5% dividend yield. P/E is 10 which has fallen into attractive range.
PRICE TREND:
STI has been shedding 9% since 2016. 2520 to 2631 are supporting lines formed in STI over past 5 years. Shall the support holds firm, bargain hunting window is opened.
*** Note: Same counter has been mentioned in Aug[5] ***
Saturday, January 9, 2016
Jan[4] - Market Update
Macro economic announcement date for coming week (Critical events highlighted in RED)
Jan[3] - Value Hunting
SingTel: The counter hardly touch price range with 5% dividend yield over past few year. Current support line $3.43 translates to dividend yield 5.1%
*** Note: Same counter has been mentioned in Sep[2] ***
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SingPost: Amid market speculation about the internal audit results from the counter over improper handling over past business acquisition. It's price has been falling into 5% dividend yield. It is one of the few listed companies which has been maintain steadily high growth in income.
*** Note: Same counter has been mentioned in Nov[5] ***
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DBS: There was report on last week that DBS has been suspended from forex business in China. Although DBS mum on the report, its shares price has been falling below net asset value. Up to latest financial report, the counter is in net cash position.
*** Note: Same counter has been mentioned in Aug[4] ***
*** Note: Same counter has been mentioned in Sep[2] ***
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SingPost: Amid market speculation about the internal audit results from the counter over improper handling over past business acquisition. It's price has been falling into 5% dividend yield. It is one of the few listed companies which has been maintain steadily high growth in income.
*** Note: Same counter has been mentioned in Nov[5] ***
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DBS: There was report on last week that DBS has been suspended from forex business in China. Although DBS mum on the report, its shares price has been falling below net asset value. Up to latest financial report, the counter is in net cash position.
*** Note: Same counter has been mentioned in Aug[4] ***
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