Dec[1] - Market Updates

Oil:
Crude Oil has been down ~ 30% since early October. An upward trend line (in blue) was broken. Current price found soft support ~ 50. Shall down swing persist, next stronger support could be ~ 43 (in brown). The sharp fall was triggered by ever rising production from Saudi and US. Sanction on Iran saw some countries being exempted for 6 more months.

Such a big fall could pave the way for strong rebound in near future. Meeting among OPEC and Russia will take place on early Dec. Geographical tension could simulate buyer's interest into the black gold as well. Trader could take position by following ETF which track movement of oil price.

Trade on bullish Oil: Oil ETF (ticker: DBO)
Trade on bearish Oil: Inverse Oil ETF (ticker: SCO)

Nov[7] - Fu Yu (Cash Cow for You)

BUSINESS:
[1] The company is now one of the largest manufacturer and supplier of high-precision injection mould and plastic parts in Asia. With plants in China, Malaysia, SG, it's serving wide range of sectors such as telecommunication, automotive, medical, etc.
[2] It's net income is on track to beat 14mil which was the peak of past 5 years. The earning growth mainly due to expansion in automotive, medical and consumer segments.
[3] Benefited from rising USD, due to majority of topline is in US currency.

HIGHLIGHTS:
[1] It has net cash 77mil, which translates to 0.1026 per share. Consistent dividend paid 0.016, ~ 8.8% yield.
[2] Last trading price 0.18 translates P/B ~ 0.8. Considering current attractive valuation, it could be potential privatization target.
[3] Downside risk could be worsening trade war between US-China.

CHART:
The counter has been trading below it's book value 0.216 for year to date. ~ 30% lower than it's peak ~ 0.26 on FY2017. Last 5 months saw the price moving in narrow range. Accumulation on weakness~

Nov[6] - Market Updates

US:
DOW Jones has been weakening ever since hitting historical high on late Sep. Last rally on Nov ended lower, so a lower high formation was formed. Immediate support 24000 would be tested on coming week. Major support is ~ 23600. Shall both supports give way to the bear in forming, more downside could be seen. Recent plummet of oil price accelerated downfall of market. The last FOMC on year end shall be drawing more attention.

Nov[5] - Golden Energy ("Coal" Star)

BUSINESS:
[1] Golden Energy and Resources Limited is 4th largest coal reserve player in Indonesia. It collectively own the right to mine 2.7mil tones of thermal coal resources with coal reserves of more than 1022MT as of 2017.
[2] It's earning has been growing in double digits year on year since 2017, on the back of strong growth in both coal mining and trading divisions.

HIGHLIGHTS:
[1] Debt gearing ~ 53% with insignificant interest expenses.
[2] Company announced interim dividend 0.0139 for last quarter which is equivalent to 5% dividend yield based on last trading price. It announced 0.01 as dividend for first quarter as well. Management has been generous to share growing cash balance with shareholders.
[3] Current valuation is attractive: P/E ~ 7, P/B ~ 1.3
[4] Earning for next quarter is expected to be supported by rising investment into coal and mineral sector by Indonesia government as well as higher export to China.

CHART:
Share price surged upon latest results announcement. Transaction volume was significant ever since. Coming Monday will be expiry of dividend entitlement. Shall buying volume continue, next resistance could be 0.33.

Nov[4] - Market Updates

Oil:
Crude oil showed sign of rebound from support 55. US has been building oil stocks over past few weeks, but OPEC has also signaled potential production cut for meeting on coming Dec. As one of the volatile commodity, trader could utilize following ETF for potential up and down swing of oil price. Shall price swings up, 64 could be immediate resistance.

Trade on bullish Oil: Oil ETF (ticker: DBO)
Trade on bearish Oil: Inverse Oil ETF (ticker: SCO)

Nov[3] - Market Updates

Oil:
Crude oil broken support ~ 60 on last trading day. Shall downfall persist, next stronger support would be ~ 55. US shale companies have be ramping up production. Although Iran was banned from exporting crude, US announced waiver for few major importer countries. Technically price could rebound anytime. 64 shall be resistance. ahead. Trader could take position by following ETF on such swinging and volatile condition of oil.

Trade on bullish Oil: Oil ETF (ticker: DBO)
Trade on bearish Oil: Inverse Oil ETF (ticker: SCO)

Market Calendar:

Nov[2] - REIT Screening

The following table lists down all REIT counters with following measures:
Div Yld in %: Dividend yield
P/BV: Price to Book Value
Price vs High in %: Current price vs 52 weeks High
D/E in %: Debt to Equity
Growth 3y in %: 3 years Revenue Growth

Considering borrowing cost would be in rising path, lower debt is the top criteria to for shortlisting REIT.  Following four counters were selected because of respective D/E less than 50%. Generally, all of them have been declining from 52 weeks high. Investors could set accumulation price based on individual risk investment objective.

ESR - REIT:
Upon consolidation with Viva Industrial Trust, it emerged as 4th largest industrial REIT which could benefit from widely expected bottoming of SG industrial market. The synergy would take time to realize. 7% yield looks attractive.

Mapletree Industrial REIT:
Another industrial REIT which used to deliver stable distribution. Newly completed assets in Kallang contributed to higher earning ahead. Besides lower debt gearing, 74% of borrowing is in fixed rate.

SPH REIT:
The counter has been pretty stable in shares price since IPO, benefiting from its mature assets in portfolio. Newly acquisition of Rail Mall strengthen its food & beverage offering with the location benefit. Market is still waiting for its inclusion of Seletar Mall which might take longer time than expected. It could prove to be next price catalyst

Keppel DC REIT:
Being one of the top favorite REIT, it delivered strongest earning growth over the years. Its assets is in high demand and high entry-barrier sector. Its dip in price used to attract attention of buyers. It has just signed agreement Macquare Telecom (MT) for construction of new data center in Sydney. The latter would become tenant for 20 years master leases.

Reference:
[1] https://research.sginvestors.io/2018/06/esr-reit-cgs-cimb-research-2018-06-01.html
[2] https://www.theedgesingapore.com/will-strong-fundamentals-shield-mapletree-industrial-trust-market-headwinds?fbclid=IwAR1jYOVyrG10pkG4q4S0KgT7Xh2mQ8fMBN6X6k-Lcduxt205_reQ0LrNOIQ
[3] https://research.sginvestors.io/2018/10/sph-reit-dbs-group-research-2018-10-12.html
[4] https://www.theedgesingapore.com/keppel-dc-reit-kept-%E2%80%98buy%E2%80%99-positive-outlook-aum-growth-healthy-operating-stats?fbclid=IwAR3F3AitC4R1WWFdFyhzLGi2RxNBNyEPvBwWnDzuVU1TBnEY6pr6HnU-Q54

Chart[95] - HongKongLand

The counter has been falling in price since mid 2018. Current price represents ~ 30% down from 2018 peak. It's price rebounded with significant volume on last trading day. Shall next resistance 6.17 been broken, trader could set target price as far as 6.68. 

Zooming out to longer time frame, current price is pretty close to its 6 years support ~ 5.6 to 5.8. Considering current valuation ~ 0.4 P/B, bargain hunter should appear soon. 

Nov[1] - Market Updates

Singapore:
Ahead of US mid term election next week, there was mix of voice from US regarding its stance on trade deal with China. Overwhelmed by optimism, regional market were riding on small rally till end of last trading day. STI rebounded strongly from it's 3 years support ~ 2966. It's still early to judge whether bear run ended. Investor shall take the opportunity to reshuffle portfolio.

Market Updates: